A methylation clock model of mild SARS-CoV-2 infection provides insight into immune dysregulation.

DNA methylation comprises a cumulative record of lifetime exposures superimposed on genetically determined markers. Little is known about methylation dynamics in humans following an acute perturbation, such as infection. We characterized the temporal trajectory of blood epigenetic remodeling in 133 participants in a prospective study of young adults before, during, and after asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. The differential methylation caused by asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infections was indistinguishable. While differential gene expression largely returned to baseline levels after the virus became undetectable, some differentially methylated sites persisted for months of follow-up, with a pattern resembling autoimmune or inflammatory disease. We leveraged these responses to construct methylation-based machine learning models that distinguished samples from pre-, during-, and postinfection time periods, and quantitatively predicted the time since infection. The clinical trajectory in the young adults and in a diverse cohort with more severe outcomes was predicted by the similarity of methylation before or early after SARS-CoV-2 infection to the model-defined postinfection state. Unlike the phenomenon of trained immunity, the postacute SARS-CoV-2 epigenetic landscape we identify is antiprotective.

Multi-objective optimization identifies a specific and interpretable COVID-19 host response signature.

The identification of a COVID-19 host response signature in blood can increase the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and improve diagnostic tools. Applying a multi-objective optimization framework to both massive public and new multi-omics data, we identified a COVID-19 signature regulated at both transcriptional and epigenetic levels. We validated the signature's robustness in multiple independent COVID-19 cohorts. Using public data from 8,630 subjects and 53 conditions, we demonstrated no cross-reactivity with other viral and bacterial infections, COVID-19 comorbidities, or confounders. In contrast, previously reported COVID-19 signatures were associated with significant cross-reactivity. The signature's interpretation, based on cell-type deconvolution and single-cell data analysis, revealed prominent yet complementary roles for plasmablasts and memory T cells. Although the signal from plasmablasts mediated COVID-19 detection, the signal from memory T cells controlled against cross-reactivity with other viral infections. This framework identified a robust, interpretable COVID-19 signature and is broadly applicable in other disease contexts. A record of this paper's transparent peer review process is included in the supplemental information.

Pre-infection antiviral innate immunity contributes to sex differences in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Male sex is a major risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection severity. To understand the basis for this sex difference, we studied SARS-CoV-2 infection in a young adult cohort of United States Marine recruits. Among 2,641 male and 244 female unvaccinated and seronegative recruits studied longitudinally, SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred in 1,033 males and 137 females. We identified sex differences in symptoms, viral load, blood transcriptome, RNA splicing, and proteomic signatures. Females had higher pre-infection expression of antiviral interferon-stimulated gene (ISG) programs. Causal mediation analysis implicated ISG differences in number of symptoms, levels of ISGs, and differential splicing of CD45 lymphocyte phosphatase during infection. Our results indicate that the antiviral innate immunity set point causally contributes to sex differences in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A record of this paper's transparent peer review process is included in the supplemental information.

Re-analysis on the statistical sampling biases of a mask promotion trial in Bangladesh: a statistical replication.

A recent randomized trial evaluated the impact of mask promotion on COVID-19-related outcomes. We find that staff behavior in both unblinded and supposedly blinded steps caused large and statistically significant imbalances in population sizes. These denominator differences constitute the rate differences observed in the trial, complicating inferences of causality.

A single intranasal dose of human parainfluenza virus type 3-vectored vaccine induces effective antibody and memory T cell response in the lungs and protects hamsters against SARS-CoV-2.

Respiratory tract vaccination has an advantage of needle-free delivery and induction of mucosal immune response in the portal of SARS-CoV-2 entry. We utilized human parainfluenza virus type 3 vector to generate constructs expressing the full spike (S) protein of SARS-CoV-2, its S1 subunit, or the receptor-binding domain, and tested them in hamsters as single-dose intranasal vaccines. The construct bearing full-length S induced high titers of neutralizing antibodies specific to S protein domains critical to the protein functions. Robust memory T cell responses in the lungs were also induced, which represent an additional barrier to infection and should be less sensitive than the antibody responses to mutations present in SARS-CoV-2 variants. Following SARS-CoV-2 challenge, animals were protected from the disease and detectable viral replication. Vaccination prevented induction of gene pathways associated with inflammation. These results indicate advantages of respiratory vaccination against COVID-19 and inform the design of mucosal SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.

Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold.

Individual variation in susceptibility and exposure is subject to selection by natural infection, accelerating the acquisition of immunity, and reducing herd immunity thresholds and epidemic final sizes. This is a manifestation of a wider population phenomenon known as "frailty variation". Despite theoretical understanding, public health policies continue to be guided by mathematical models that leave out considerable variation and as a result inflate projected disease burdens and overestimate the impact of interventions. Here we focus on trajectories of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Scotland until November 2021. We fit models to series of daily deaths and infer relevant epidemiological parameters, including coefficients of variation and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions which we find in agreement with independent empirical estimates based on contact surveys. Our estimates are robust to whether the analysed data series encompass one or two pandemic waves and enable projections compatible with subsequent dynamics. We conclude that vaccination programmes may have contributed modestly to the acquisition of herd immunity in populations with high levels of pre-existing naturally acquired immunity, while being crucial to protect vulnerable individuals from severe outcomes as the virus becomes endemic.

Antibody Responses to SARS-CoV-2 Following an Outbreak Among Marine Recruits With Asymptomatic or Mild Infection.

We investigated serological responses following a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in spring 2020 on a US Marine recruit training base. 147 participants that were isolated during an outbreak of respiratory illness were enrolled in this study, with visits approximately 6 and 10 weeks post-outbreak (PO). This cohort is comprised of young healthy adults, ages 18-26, with a high rate of asymptomatic infection or mild symptoms, and therefore differs from previously reported longitudinal studies on humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2, which often focus on more diverse age populations and worse clinical presentation. 80.9% (119/147) of the participants presented with circulating IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) receptor-binding domain (RBD) at 6 weeks PO, of whom 97.3% (111/114) remained positive, with significantly decreased levels, at 10 weeks PO. Neutralizing activity was detected in all sera from SARS-CoV-2 IgG positive participants tested (n=38) at 6 and 10 weeks PO, without significant loss between time points. IgG and IgA antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 RBD, S1, S2, and the nucleocapsid (N) protein, as well neutralization activity, were generally comparable between those participants that had asymptomatic infection or mild disease. A multiplex assay including S proteins from SARS-CoV-2 and related zoonotic and human endemic betacoronaviruses revealed a positive correlation for polyclonal cross-reactivity to S after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Overall, young adults that experienced asymptomatic or mild SARS-CoV-2 infection developed comparable humoral responses, with no decrease in neutralizing activity at least up to 10 weeks after infection.

Modeling strict age-targeted mitigation strategies for COVID-19.

We use a simple SIR-like epidemic model integrating known age-contact patterns for the United States to model the effect of age-targeted mitigation strategies for a COVID-19-like epidemic. We find that, among strategies which end with population immunity, strict age-targeted mitigation strategies have the potential to greatly reduce mortalities and ICU utilization for natural parameter choices.